A major development in global trade has arrived as President Trump follows through on his promise to implement aggressive new tariffs. Effective February 4th, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the U.S. will enforce:

  • 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico (which contributed to 28% of U.S. imports in 2023, valued at nearly $900B).
  • 10% tariffs on all imports from China.
  • Energy imports from Canada and Mexico will face a lower 10% tariff.

The justification? Trump points to urgent national threats, including the inflow of illegal drugs—especially fentanyl—and unauthorized border crossings. By invoking the IEEPA, he bypasses the typical lengthy federal review process, making this the first instance of its kind.

Trump’s executive orders extend far beyond simply increasing import duties:

  • No exemptions allowed: Unlike prior tariff programs, industries—such as automotive and energy—will not be granted carve-outs, despite extensive lobbying.
  • Escalation-ready: Provisions in the orders permit tariff hikes if Canada, Mexico, or China retaliate.
  • Elimination of de minimis threshold: Goods under $800 will no longer be exempt from duties, which could significantly hurt cross-border e-commerce businesses.
  • Duty drawback removals: Importers can no longer recover duties paid on goods they export or destroy, further tightening their margins.
  • Tariffs with indefinite timelines: Duties will remain until Canada, Mexico, and China implement “sufficient” enforcement measures to address U.S. concerns.

What’s Next? Potential Expansion to Europe and Key Industries

President Trump hinted that these initial tariffs are just the beginning. Mid-February could bring additional measures targeting:

  • Semiconductors
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • Steel, aluminum, and copper
  • Oil and natural gas

Tariffs on European Union imports are also in the pipeline, though details on rates and timing have yet to be disclosed.

With significant changes on the horizon, staying ahead of these developments will be crucial for businesses navigating this shifting landscape.